🐧 The Rise of 10X Workers

Today, in 10 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• 🔮 Why Naval Ravikant's prediction about entrepreneurship misses the mark
• 🧑‍💻 4 key trends reshaping work (including the rise of 10x non-technical workers)
• 💫 5 strategies for high-performers to thrive in this new world of work

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🖊️ The Rise of 10X Workers

"In 50 years, everyone will be working for themselves."

That’s what famous investor Naval Ravikant said during a recent podcast.

Naval's a brilliant guy, but this prediction is off.

Starting a business is HARD. Most people aren't cut out for the uncertainty.

They crave the stability of a paycheck. And that’s okay.

However, there's a grain of truth in what he’s saying.

The future of work isn't about everyone becoming an entrepreneur.

It's about the rise of the "portfolio career."

Here’s how I defined this term in a recent edition:

FT employment = working a single full-time (FT) role for one employer
Portfolio career = having multiple, leveraged income sources

In this newsletter, I’m going to deep dive into 4 key trends I see shaping the future of work—including the rise of 10x workers—their impact on people like you and me, and how to adapt to this future world.

Here is what I see coming:

Trend 1: Alternative work goes mainstream

The talent market, like any market, is dictated by supply and demand.

Here is why the supply and demand for alternative work is evolving:

‍

Demand: Employers are seeking new employment models

Since the end of the ZIRP era, employers have been cutting costs.

One of the biggest expenses?

Wages and salaries.

To save on labor expenses, employers are seeking greater efficiencies by seeking fractional, part-time, and remote/hybrid work.

For example, employers are hiring more part-time roles across many industries:

This is also happening for senior level roles:

According to Deloitte, 25% of U.S. businesses have adopted fractional hiring of mid/senior-level talent, with this figure expected to rise to 35% by 2025.

And it’s not only employers wanting this model…

‍

Supply: Employees are adopting alternative work

Since the Covid pandemic, workers have desired more flexibility. 

Many people I know want this flexibility to:

• Pursue fulfilling activities outside of work
• Spend time with their kids
• Avoid long commutes
• Work remotely

Another driver? Concerns over job security.

Due to the spike in layoffs, in tech especially, I’ve spoken to several employees are looking for ways to diversify their income streams.

And finally… rising costs.

In a recent survey with American workers, 38% of respondents said they’re pursuing side hustles due to inflation and economic conditions.

In light of these factors, more workers are interested in fractional, part-time, and freelancing work.

50% of all US workers are projected to be doing some form of freelancing by 2027.

We’re only at the beginning of this inflection curve.

‍

Trend 2: The 10x non-technical worker emerges

Everyone in tech loves to talk about the “10x engineer”.

Are they a myth? Or do they actually exist?

In my experience, I have worked with brilliant engineers who were insanely productive.

They would mop the floor due to smart choices stemming rom their technical expertise, business skills, or political know-how.

So yes, I personally think they exist.

In the future, I believe this concept will also extend to non-technical workers.

We’ll see more product, marketing, sales, and ops folks leveraging AI and automation to become highly productive.

And the top 10% or 5% of talent will just be miles above the rest.

Productivity gains are already happening:

An MIT study reported that genAI helped high-skilled workers increase productivity by 40%.

Now imagine if the gains from leveraging technology are compounded over time.

It wouldn’t be totally absurd to see the rise of 10x—or even 50x workers.

‍

Trend 3: Managers will manage AI agents, not just people

In former Intel CEO Andy Groves’ best-selling book, High Output Management, he pounds on the idea of managerial leverage:

A manager’s output is thus the sum of the result of individual activities having varying degrees of leverage. Clearly the key to high output means being sensitive to the leverage of what you do during the day

Andy Groves

Since I had my first stint as a manager in 2018, I realized:

Managerial leverage is about leveraging talent.

Especially in the case of high-skilled or knowledge work.

Yes, ensuring your team uses the right tools is important…

But historically, your greatest leverage as a manager has been activities like hiring, firing, and training/coaching talent.

Going forward, I expect the highest-performing managers to leverage both AI agents and talent.

Why?

As per Trend 1, labor costs are rising.

And as costs continue to rise, I expect managers to supply teams with AI agents as a lower-cost method of amplifying strategic or executional productivity.

This is already happening:

In a recent survey from Capgemini, 82% of 1,100 tech executives indicated that they plan to integrate AI-based agents in their organizations within the next three years.

Take an accounting firm business owner.

Today, you might hire 7 people to execute your projects—including:

• Sales people
• Accountant(s)
• Bookkeeper(s)
• Tax strategist
• Operations/admin staff

In the future, you may hire:

• 5 people for mainly customer-facing roles or coordinating agents
• 20 AI agents for scaling back-end service delivery and operations

… to generate greater output versus today.

Hence, managers and business owners will be able to create more output than ever before by leveraging AI agents alongside human talent.

‍

Trend 4: Economic rewards follow a power law

Traditional economics says technology leads to productivity gains evenly across everyone.

However, I believe a nuanced model is more realistic:

• High-skilled workers are able to leverage technology to generate productivity gains much more than less skilled workers
• This creates a feedback loop where high-skilled workers can attract more resources, talent, and capital
• This leads to a widening income disparity

In other words, the top 10% of workers will rake in most of the gains from leveraging AI.

The gains will compound as they pull in more resources, talent, and capital…

… and deploy them to produce even more gains.

A power law effect.

‍

Impact on 10X vs Average Workers

If you’re a current or aspiring 10x worker:

• I believe this future will be a golden era for you
• You can leverage productivity-enhancing technology to generate more value from per hour of your time than ever before
• And if you’re intentional, you can prioritize the work you enjoy and take greater control of over your time

If you’re an average worker:

• The benefits may not be as substantial
• This is because I believe that productivity gains will follow a power law
• Most rewards will accrue to the top 10% who can leverage their skills, new technology, and relationships to best

If you’re reading this newsletter, it’s safe to say you’re amongst the top 10%.

You’re a high-performer. A potential 10x worker.

But looking to work on your own terms.

Here is my thoughts on how to adapt as a high-performer seeking to “work to live”:

‍

How to Adapt to the New Future

1. Constantly deepen your expertise
   • Your expertise and rare skills are the foundation of how you differentiate in the market
   • As well as, how you create leverage in your work
2. Leverage your expertise with AI and new technologies
   • Allocate time each week for learning and experimentation with new tools
   • Look for ways in which you’ll be able 10x your output
3. Build relationships and brand around your expertise
   • By boosting your output, you’ll attract talent, partners, and people who are interested in what you have to say
   • Find opportunities to tap your network and platform to amplify your gains further
4. Diversify your income streams
   • Repurpose your expertise into different monetization vehicles to reach different pockets within your market
   • At the same time, build in resiliency and adaptability into your portfolio career
5. Adapt work arrangement to personal goals
   1. Failure mode is not only going broke financially, but also running out of time to do the things you want
   2. That’s why it’s crucial to start clear personal goals then work backwards to your work arrangements

In Summary

Naval's not entirely wrong.

I don't see the entrepreneurial utopia he envisioned.

But we're moving towards more independent work and portfolio careers.

Four key trends I see shaping the future of work:

1. Alternative work going mainstream
2. The rise of 10x non-technical workers
3. Managers overseeing both human talent and AI agents
4. Economic rewards following a power law distribution

To thrive in this new landscape, high-performers need to:

• Continually deepen your expertise
• Leverage your expertise with AI and new technologies
• Build relationships and brand around your expertise
• Diversify your income streams
• Adapt work arrangement to personal goals

What do you think? Reply to this email with your thoughts. I’d love to hear from you.

🌐 Beyond your borders

🧑‍💻 New RTO research published: The data shows the top 16% of remote workers outperform the top 5% in-office while the bottom 12% of remote workers underperform the bottom 5% in-office. Translation? RTO may be punishing top performers.

🔮 Nick Maggiulli makes 3 predictions for 2034: U.S. residential real estate underperforming inflation, custom chatbots will be all the rage, and more people following coast FIRE (guilty as charged).

🧠 Social snippets

🗞️ I collab’ed with Aakash Gupta on a guest post, How to Move Geographies as a PM, in his Product Growth newsletter (146k subs).

💬 In 2023, I left my last full-time PM role to start a portfolio career.

For daily insights, follow me on Linkedin or Threads.